Why Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East But Struggles Regarding Vladimir Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an impending US-Russia leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after Donald Trump announced he intended to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A initial meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky departs White House empty-handed
The frequently changing summit is another twist in Trump's efforts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in Egypt last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get the Russian situation done," he declared.
Nonetheless, the conditions that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing several years.
Less Leverage
Per the lead negotiator, the key to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered America's Arab allies but provided Trump bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump gained from a long record of siding with Israel since his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to move the American embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The US president, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Add in Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the war.
Meanwhile, the president has publicly berated Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending arms shipments to the country - then to retreat in the wake of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.
The president often boasts about his skill to meet and negotiate agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the hostilities any closer to a peaceful end.
The Russian president may in fact be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.
During the summer, Putin agreed to a summit in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that the president would sign off on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently delayed.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia called the US president who then touted the possible summit in Budapest.
The next day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but departed without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.
The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"You know, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he remarked.
But the Ukrainian leader later commented on the sequence of events.
"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.
Thus, in a short period, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – even land Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately decided on advocating a truce along present frontlines – something the Russian government has rejected.
On the campaign trail previously, the candidate promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, admitting that ending the war is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when both parties desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.