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The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, although analysts suggest PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a four-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, PVV's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June amid a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a campaign focused on issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with some experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant division ensures that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of power. However, critics and analysts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations could take several months, political observers suggest that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a inclusive alliance led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.