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The historic Ashes series may offer one cause for celebration, but this series will also witness the Australian team celebrate more birthday parties than Timezone in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald celebrated his thirty-first birthday a day prior to the squad was named. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day preceding the Test in Perth. Beau Webster reaches 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is out.

Ageing Squad Interest Builds

For two or three years there has been mounting curiosity with the age of this team and especially the bowling unit. It is unusual to have almost every player in a Test team being above thirty, except for novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that older age was a problem: a Test squad featuring a four-bowler lineup with over 1,500 wickets between them is hardly a disadvantage, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are well into their professional lives.

I've never felt this sure at the start of an Ashes tour | a former player

Perhaps what most amplified the discussion is that the backup bowlers over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their 30s. Younger bowlers have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Transition Imposed by Injuries

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the core four plus Boland have kept on performing. Any team knows that having a batch of same-generation players might mean a group of simultaneous retirements, but so far change has remained hypothetical: a train that would certainly be arriving the bend when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet steamed into view.

Now, abruptly, change is here, imposed on this Australian squad in the span of a few weeks. The back injury to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would likely only sit out the opening match, was the team management assessment, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring injury, the team balance experiences a much more significant change with two key bowlers missing rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the stability and precision that enables Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a attacking option. Losing both of them means a major adjustment in the composition of the side. Boland taking the new ball is not unusual in his first-class career, but he has been so effective in Test matches coming on after seven or eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll probably have to be the opening bowler.

Newcomer Faces Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself isn't an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, partly English, for the first Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many media stories portray him as laid-back. He could be wheeled onto the field on a sun lounger and still be anxious.

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It's uncertain, it might all go smoothly for this new attack. It might not. What is striking is how rapidly Australia have transitioned from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, and others. Who knows what further injuries the opening match may bring. Who knows whether Cummins will be fit for Brisbane, and able to continue after Brisbane, given how complicated stress fractures can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be out, with a history of getting injured early in series and a history of minor injuries becoming extended absences.

Future Uncertain

The latter part of the series may witness the main four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might experience transition setting in much earlier than the stretch goal of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is apparently the next option and could be a great pink-ball Brisbane choice, but after that with choices uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also injured and has not yet played a Test match. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm repaired, and this format is no place for gradually starting one’s work. After them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all opportunity for the visiting team. You can hear that train approaching, rolling round the corner, and the English team hasn't seen the sunshine since they don’t know when.