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Just 48 hours remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

With the help of CricViz, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

Much of the build-up has focused on the perceived challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, particularly against fast bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the difference, and vice-versa.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

In addition to Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have won by a total of 694 runs, including a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australian conditions.

His batting average rises when the pace increases.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, though Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.

England often complicate day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|