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It was eight weeks prior when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery scolded him over missing a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, the question was whether his displays were a symptom or the reason for the side's broader struggles.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. When the England international curled home his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their initial half-dozen fixtures, are somehow a mere three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?

That’s a particularly tough question to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, even as the victories have stacked up.

According to the data, in only two games have Villa posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a club who have strung together ten consecutive victories, they look strangely fragile – but at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.

The Winning Formula

Their recent policy seems to be to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with two precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again against United.

Rogers' first goal stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he seized on a pass from Watkins.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Is It Sustainable?

Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those games.

Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent they will encounter in the near future. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.

Potential for Growth

Maybe there exists another reality where, rather than luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet rediscover their best form.

• The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
• The attacking talent could transform into the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.

Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.

Enjoying the Ride

However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, few could imagine the young forward as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.

This winning streak must be cherished precisely because it seems so surreal. When the match-winner faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods do not happen often and must be appreciated.